The Problem with Assumptions: Revisiting the Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism

What is the actual rate of sexual recidivism given the well-known fact that many crimes go unreported? This is a difficult and important problem, and in The Dark Figure of Sexual Recidivism, Nicholas Scurich and Richard S. John (2019) attempt to make progress on it by “estimate[ing] actual recidivism rates given observed rates of reoffending” (p.172). In this article, we show that the math in their probabilistic model is flawed, but more important, we demonstrate that their conclusions follow ineluctably from their empirical assumptions and the unrepresentative empirical research they cite to benchmark their calculations. Scurich and John contend that their analysis undermines what they call the “orthodoxy in academic circles” (p.172) of low sexual recidivism rates among individuals convicted of sex offenses, but we underscore that their article does not analyze data in the traditional sense; instead, it just interprets past scholarly work through the use of strong assumptions in a way that, for practitioners, is likely to be opaque and misleading (and, for us, strays into speculation, argument, or advocacy and away from objective research). Our simple calculations show that their findings are highly sensitive to their assumptions, and we conclude that courts and others should recognize Scurich and John’s work for what it is—a set of complex hypotheticals that are no more reliable than what judges and lawyers accomplish on their own by simply recognizing the basic problem that not all sex offenses are reported

Performance portability of Earth system models with user-controlled GGDML code translation

The increasing need for performance of earth system modeling and other scientific domains pushes the computing technologies in diverse architectural directions. The development of models needs technical expertise and skills of using tools that are able to exploit the hardware capabilities. The heterogeneity of architectures complicates the development and the maintainability of the models. To improve the software development process of earth system models, we provide an approach that simplifies the code maintainability by fostering separation of concerns while providing performance portability. We propose the use of high-level language extensions that reflect scientific concepts. The scientists can use the programming language of their own choice to develop models, however, they can use the language extensions optionally wherever they need. The code translation is driven by configurations that are separated from the model source code. These configurations are prepared by scientific programmers to optimally use the machine’s features. The main contribution of this paper is the demonstration of a user-controlled source-to-source translation technique of earth system models that are written with higher-level semantics. We discuss a flexible code translation technique that is driven by the users through a configuration input that is prepared especially to transform the code, and we use this technique to produce OpenMP or OpenACC enabled codes besides MPI to support multi-node configurations

Approximation for Cooperative Interactions of a Spatially-Detailed Cardiac Sarcomere Model

We developed a novel ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, which produced results that correlated well with the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation when applied to a spatially-detailed model of the cardiac sarcomere. Configuration of the novel ODE model was based on the Ising model of myofilaments, with the “co-operative activation” effect introduced to incorporate nearest-neighbor interactions. First, a set of parameters was estimated using arbitrary Ca transient data to reproduce the combinational probability for the states of three consecutive regulatory units, using single unit probabilities for central and neighboring units in the MC simulation. The parameter set thus obtained enabled the calculation of the state transition of each unit using the ODE model with reference to the neighboring states. The present ODE model not only provided good agreement with the MC simulation results but was also capable of reproducing a wide range of experimental results under both steady-state and dynamic conditions including shortening twitch. The simulation results suggested that the nearest-neighbor interaction is a reasonable approximation of the cooperativity based on end-to-end interactions. Utilizing the modified ODE model resulted in a reduction in computational costs but maintained spatial integrity and co-operative effects, making it a powerful tool in cardiac modeling

Maladaptation and the paradox of robustness in evolution

Background. Organisms use a variety of mechanisms to protect themselves against perturbations. For example, repair mechanisms fix damage, feedback loops keep homeostatic systems at their setpoints, and biochemical filters distinguish signal from noise. Such buffering mechanisms are often discussed in terms of robustness, which may be measured by reduced sensitivity of performance to perturbations. Methodology/Principal Findings. I use a mathematical model to analyze the evolutionary dynamics of robustness in order to understand aspects of organismal design by natural selection. I focus on two characters: one character performs an adaptive task; the other character buffers the performance of the first character against perturbations. Increased perturbations favor enhanced buffering and robustness, which in turn decreases sensitivity and reduces the intensity of natural selection on the adaptive character. Reduced selective pressure on the adaptive character often leads to a less costly, lower performance trait. Conclusions/Significance. The paradox of robustness arises from evolutionary dynamics: enhanced robustness causes an evolutionary reduction in the adaptive performance of the target character, leading to a degree of maladaptation compared to what could be achieved by natural selection in the absence of robustness mechanisms. Over evolutionary time, buffering traits may become layered on top of each other, while the underlying adaptive traits become replaced by cheaper, lower performance components. The paradox of robustness has widespread implications for understanding organismal design

Chronic hypokalemia due to excessive cola consumption: a case report

A 52-year-old man was noted to have severe chronic hypokalemia despite discontinuation of diuretic treatment for hypertension and aggressive oral potassium supplementation. His serum potassium normalized temporarily when he was hospitalized, but hypokalemia recurred after discharge. He complained of generalized weakness and fatigue, and occasional loose stools. Physical examination showed mild generalized muscle weakness. Laboratory testing ruled out renal potassium wasting. A dietary history revealed that he was consuming 4 liters of cola per day, with a calculated fructose load of 396 grams per day. Since fructose absorption in the small bowel is relatively inefficient, this probably led to an osmotic diarrhea and GI potassium wasting. Physicians should ask their patients about soft drink consumption when they encounter unexplained hypokalemia

Influence of High Intensity Focused Ultrasound on the Microstructure and c-di-GMP Signaling of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilms

Bacterial biofilms are typically more tolerant to antimicrobials compared to bacteria in the planktonic phase and therefore require alternative treatment approaches. Mechanical biofilm disruption from ultrasound may be such an alternative by circumventing rapid biofilm adaptation to antimicrobial agents. Although ultrasound facilitates biofilm dispersal and may enhance the effectiveness of antimicrobial agents, the resulting biological response of bacteria within the biofilms remains poorly understood. To address this question, we investigated the microstructural effects of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms exposed to high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) at different acoustic pressures and the subsequent biological response. Confocal microscopy images indicated a clear microstructural response at peak negative pressures equal to or greater than 3.5 MPa. In this pressure amplitude range, HIFU partially reduced the biomass of cells and eroded exopolysaccharides from the biofilm. These pressures also elicited a biological response; we observed an increase in a biomarker for biofilm development (cyclic-di-GMP) proportional to ultrasound induced biofilm removal. Cyclic-di-GMP overproducing mutant strains were also more resilient to disruption from HIFU at these pressures. The biological response was further evidenced by an increase in the relative abundance of cyclic-di-GMP overproducing variants present in the biofilm after exposure to HIFU. Our results, therefore, suggest that both physical and biological effects of ultrasound on bacterial biofilms must be considered in future studies.</jats:p

Colored Motifs Reveal Computational Building Blocks in the C. elegans Brain

Background: Complex networks can often be decomposed into less complex sub-networks whose structures can give hints about the functional organization of the network as a whole. However, these structural motifs can only tell one part of the functional story because in this analysis each node and edge is treated on an equal footing. In real networks, two motifs that are topologically identical but whose nodes perform very different functions will play very different roles in the network. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we combine structural information derived from the topology of the neuronal network of the nematode C. elegans with information about the biological function of these nodes, thus coloring nodes by function. We discover that particular colorations of motifs are significantly more abundant in the worm brain than expected by chance, and have particular computational functions that emphasize the feed-forward structure of information processing in the network, while evading feedback loops. Interneurons are strongly over-represented among the common motifs, supporting the notion that these motifs process and transduce the information from the sensor neurons towards the muscles. Some of the most common motifs identified in the search for significant colored motifs play a crucial role in the system of neurons controlling the worm's locomotion. Conclusions/Significance: The analysis of complex networks in terms of colored motifs combines two independent data sets to generate insight about these networks that cannot be obtained with either data set alone. The method is general and should allow a decomposition of any complex networks into its functional (rather than topological) motifs as long as both wiring and functional information is available

Haemoglobin mass and running time trial performance after recombinant human erythropoietin administration in trained men

&lt;p&gt;Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) increases haemoglobin mass (Hbmass) and maximal oxygen uptake (v˙ O2 max).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Purpose: This study defined the time course of changes in Hbmass, v˙ O2 max as well as running time trial performance following 4 weeks of rHuEpo administration to determine whether the laboratory observations would translate into actual improvements in running performance in the field.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: 19 trained men received rHuEpo injections of 50 IUNkg21 body mass every two days for 4 weeks. Hbmass was determined weekly using the optimized carbon monoxide rebreathing method until 4 weeks after administration. v˙ O2 max and 3,000 m time trial performance were measured pre, post administration and at the end of the study.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: Relative to baseline, running performance significantly improved by ,6% after administration (10:3061:07 min:sec vs. 11:0861:15 min:sec, p,0.001) and remained significantly enhanced by ,3% 4 weeks after administration (10:4661:13 min:sec, p,0.001), while v˙ O2 max was also significantly increased post administration (60.765.8 mLNmin21Nkg21 vs. 56.066.2 mLNmin21Nkg21, p,0.001) and remained significantly increased 4 weeks after rHuEpo (58.065.6 mLNmin21Nkg21, p = 0.021). Hbmass was significantly increased at the end of administration compared to baseline (15.261.5 gNkg21 vs. 12.761.2 gNkg21, p,0.001). The rate of decrease in Hbmass toward baseline values post rHuEpo was similar to that of the increase during administration (20.53 gNkg21Nwk21, 95% confidence interval (CI) (20.68, 20.38) vs. 0.54 gNkg21Nwk21, CI (0.46, 0.63)) but Hbmass was still significantly elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline (13.761.1 gNkg21, p&#60;0.001).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusion: Running performance was improved following 4 weeks of rHuEpo and remained elevated 4 weeks after administration compared to baseline. These field performance effects coincided with rHuEpo-induced elevated v˙ O2 max and Hbmass.&lt;/p&gt

Differential Dynamics of Transposable Elements during Long-Term Diploidization of Nicotiana Section Repandae (Solanaceae) Allopolyploid Genomes

PubMed ID: 23185607This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited